The climate risk to your supply chain, quantified
Footprinting tells you your impact on the world. Risk tells you the world's impact on you. Sustained models physical climate and nature hazards across your sourcing, and turns them into revenue you can plan around.
Climate & nature risk
Beta8 of 8 factors · cyclone · drought · flood · frost · heat · soil · water stress · wildfire
✦ What climate & nature risk could cost you
In a typical year
€14.24M
≈ 1.1% of revenue
In a bad year · 1-in-25
€132.89M
worst single hazard
In an extreme year · 1-in-100
€447.13M
worst single hazard
Baseline
0.45
High-warming
0.65
Impact
↑ +0.20
The next layer on the data you already have
Risk is not a separate tool with a separate data burden. It runs on your existing Sustained product records: every product footprint, ingredient and sourcing origin you have already modelled becomes the substrate for risk scoring, automatically.
- Your full PEF footprints and supply-chain origins flow straight in
- Risk is computed per product and rolled up to workspace, report and company
- Reformulated recipes flow back as saved models in your platform
Eight hazards, scored to the confidence they earn
Every sourcing location is scored against eight physical hazards. Three are modelled as calibrated annual probabilities; five as relative exposure indices. The engine keeps that distinction explicit, so a confident number and a directional signal are never confused.
Flood
ProbabilityRiverine and coastal-surge flooding at each sourcing location.
WRI Aqueduct Floods
Extreme heat
ProbabilityDamaging heat extremes, benchmarked to crop heat thresholds.
AgERA5 return levels
Cyclone
ProbabilityTropical-cyclone wind at or above damaging strength.
STORM wind model
Drought
ExposureFrequency of severe meteorological drought from rainfall deficit.
CSIC SPEIbase
Water stress
ExposureStructural water scarcity, distinct from episodic drought.
WRI Aqueduct 4.0
Wildfire & smoke
ExposureBurn likelihood combined with chronic smoke and air quality.
Burn probability + satellite PM2.5
Soil degradation
ExposureSoil erosion and salinity that erode land productivity.
GloSEM + salinity data
Frost
ExposureFrost-day frequency for cold-sensitive crops.
C3S agroclimatic indicators
Probability hazards (flood, extreme heat, cyclone) carry a calibrated annual likelihood. Exposure hazards are relative indices, weighted down in the headline score so an uncalibrated signal cannot dominate a confident one.
The signals we deliberately keep out of the score
The eight hazards make up the headline risk number. The engine computes several more signals and holds them out of it on purpose: each is a different kind of measure, a standing condition, an operational disruption, a compliance fact, that would distort a calibrated event probability if it were averaged in. Two sit here on their own cards. The biodiversity and ocean-acidification surfaces, and the EUDR deforestation screen, are the others, shown under Compliance & disclosure.
Logistics & infrastructure stress
Disruption risk at the gateways your goods actually move through: coastal surge at the nearest cargo port, the marine choke-points that gate it (Suez, Panama, Hormuz, Malacca) and the freight-river reaches that serve each origin.
World Port Index + Aqueduct coastal + choke-point model
Deforestation activity
Ongoing forest-loss intensity at each sourcing location: a land-use pressure tracked in its own right, kept distinct from the post-2020 EUDR compliance screen.
Global forest-loss intensity layer
From a hazard score to a number on the P&L
For the three calibrated hazards, risk becomes expected annual loss: revenue exposed in a typical year, and in one-in-25 and one-in-100 bad years. Tail years are reported as the worst single hazard, never summed, and mixed-currency portfolios are labelled, never converted at an invented rate.
- Expected annual loss for flood, heat and cyclone
- Typical, one-in-25 and one-in-100-year exposure
- Scenario resilience under a high-warming 2050 future
Loss curves are fitted to US crop-insurance records; we report the modelled skill openly. The other five hazards remain exposure indices and are not expressed in euros.
Climate & nature risk
Beta8 of 8 factors · cyclone · drought · flood · frost · heat · soil · water stress · wildfire
✦ What climate & nature risk could cost you
In a typical year
€14.24M
≈ 1.1% of revenue
In a bad year · 1-in-25
€132.89M
worst single hazard
In an extreme year · 1-in-100
€447.13M
worst single hazard
Baseline
0.45
High-warming
0.65
Impact
↑ +0.20
Know exactly what is driving it
A portfolio number is only useful if you can act on it. Sustained decomposes total risk down to the suppliers, sourcing countries and commodities that contribute most, and names the dominant hazard behind each, so mitigation starts where it matters.
- Contribution ranked by origin, supplier and commodity
- The dominant hazard behind each hotspot
- Weighted by supply-chain mass share, not just raw hazard
Don't just flag risk, design it out
Risk links straight into eco-design. AI-assisted reformulation proposes lower-risk, lower-impact ingredient swaps, then re-scores the whole recipe for environmental impact, nutrition and cost, so you can see the trade-offs before committing to a change.
- Substitutions proposed against your reduction and risk targets
- Full life-cycle re-scoring of each candidate recipe
- Nutrition and cost compared side by side with the original
Original impact
6.9M
Impact points
Modelled impact
6.54M
Impact points
↓ -2.1k
kg CO₂ eq
Impact change by category
One model, six points of view
The same underlying risk model, read through the lens each stakeholder needs. AI insights turn the numbers into plain-English findings and recommended actions, which can be routed to the right team as a brief.
Business
Portfolio risk and the revenue exposed behind it.
ESG
Nature pressures and disclosure-ready summaries.
Product
SKU-level risk profiles to prioritise redesign.
Procurement
Sourcing-origin and supplier risk concentration.
Insurance
Expected annual loss and tail-year exposure.
Investor
Scenario resilience across a warming future.
Built for the questions regulators ask
Risk and nature signals feed the disclosures your customers and regulators increasingly expect, with the same traceable data behind them.
EUDR deforestation screening
Screen sourcing regions for forest loss after the EUDR cut-off date, flagging where plot-level geolocation is still needed. A screening signal, not an automated due-diligence filing.
CSRD & TNFD exports
Generate disclosure-ready packs and per-product PDF and CSV exports from the same underlying risk and impact data.
Nature signals
Standalone biodiversity-intactness and ocean-acidification surfaces sit alongside the physical-risk score for a fuller nature picture.
Calibrated, return-period based, and honest about it
The risk engine draws on published hazard products and reanalysis data, inverts real return-period curves, and is calibrated against actual crop-insurance losses. Where the evidence does not support a probability, we say so.
Return periods, not ramps
For flood, heat and cyclone, risk is derived from genuine one-in-N-year event frequencies by inverting published intensity curves, not from a saturating intensity score.
Calibrated to real losses
The calibrated hazards are fitted against more than two decades of US crop-insurance loss records, with spatially cross-validated skill that we report openly rather than hide.
Honest about confidence
Where a hazard could not be calibrated honestly, we keep it as an exposure index rather than dress it up as a loss probability, and weight it accordingly in the score.
Data sources behind the model
Risk that connects to the rest of your sustainability work
Runs on data you already have
Risk is computed on your existing Sustained product records: every footprint, ingredient and sourcing origin flows in automatically. There is no separate data project to stand up.
Physical and contributory, together
See the physical threats to your supply chain alongside how your products contribute to environmental pressure, both grounded in the same life-cycle data.
Quantified in business terms
Hazard scores become revenue-at-risk and expected annual loss for the monetised hazards, so the conversation moves from a heat map to a number a CFO recognises.
From insight to action
Risk links straight into eco-design and reformulation, and routes recommended actions to the right team, so a finding becomes a change rather than a chart.
Ready to automate your sustainability insights?
Book a personalised demo with our team and discover how Sustained can transform your environmental intelligence workflow.
- See your products assessed in minutes, not weeks
- Explore eco-design scenarios in real time
- Understand your reporting and compliance options